Tesla’s European sales see growth in 2025: what to expect from Q3 deliveries

Tesla’s European sales see growth in 2025: what to expect from Q3 deliveries

Tesla’s sales showed signs of recovery in parts of Europe during September, with gains in France, Denmark, Norway, and Spain, but continued weakness in Sweden underscored the US electric-vehicle maker’s uneven performance across the region.

The Tesla stock has rallied about 70% in the past six months and climbed 33% in September alone.

Tesla’s European sales performance

Industry data released Wednesday showed Tesla’s new car registrations — a proxy for sales — rising 2.74% year-on-year in France and 20.5% in Denmark.

In Norway, registrations climbed 14.7%, with the Model Y and Model 3 topping sales charts.

In Spain, Tesla reported a 3.4% gain, supported by a 60% jump in Model Y registrations.

The company’s revamped Model Y, rolled out across several European markets in June, was the best-selling model in Denmark in September.

Tesla has positioned the vehicle as the spearhead of its recovery in Europe, where it has struggled with an ageing lineup and mounting competition from European and Chinese rivals.

By contrast, Sweden remained a drag on performance.

Registrations there fell 64% to 1,726 cars in September, marking the ninth consecutive monthly decline, although the figure was sharply higher than the 210 vehicles registered in August.

For January to August, Tesla’s sales dropped 42.9% in the European Union and 32.6% across Europe as a whole.

China’s BYD outsold Tesla in the EU in August for the second time this year, although Tesla retained the lead across Europe overall.

Tesla delivery expectations

Tesla is due to report its third-quarter delivery numbers this week.

Estimates point to about 443,000 vehicles delivered, representing a 4% year-on-year decline but a 15% increase from the previous quarter.

Analysts said strong US sales in recent weeks lifted expectations, as buyers moved quickly to secure purchases ahead of the expiration of a $7,500 federal tax credit.

Tesla has leaned on discounts and marketing tied to the deadline, though opinions differ on whether this marks the start of a rebound or a temporary lift.

Analysts raise Tesla targets

Ahead of the delivery update, analysts have raised their outlook on Tesla shares.

Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas lifted his price target to $490 from $333 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing solid Q3 deliveries, momentum in Tesla’s energy business, and opportunities in artificial intelligence such as robo-taxis and humanoid robots.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives earlier increased his target to $600 from $500, the highest on Wall Street, while reiterating a Buy rating.

Deutsche Bank raised its forecast to $435 from $345.

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